Alex Tabarrok over at Marginal Revolution has posted in his daily assortment of links a link to a document titled “What Does Health Care Reform Mean for You? : A Consumer’s Guide.” It’s a pretty good read, and attempts at least to take a balanced approach. I was pretty certain that when the Health Care reform bill passed, you could probably fit the number of people that actual understood the legislation (myself being not included in this group) in a small conference room at best. This seems to be some of the early efforts to post a full description of the effects of the bill. Given that it backs its facts up through CBO and Medicare studies, it’s a pretty convincing argument.
Here are a few keys points that I’ve seen:
- The provisions of the bill fade in so slowly that there will be “many opportunities for voters to express their will before most provisions become law.” Even if President Obama earns a second term in office, he will not still be in office when the Cadillac insurance tax comes into effect in 2019.
- Speaking of that Cadillac tax, it’s not indexed to inflation, so eventually all insurance plans will be subject to the tax.
- The argument that was made that people will opt to be fined rather than purchase insurance seems to be pretty much entirely true. “If you fail to insure, you will be fined — with the penalty rising to $695 ($2,085 per family) in 2016 or 2.5% of your adjusted gross income, whichever is greater.” However, “You may be able to buy insurance you cannot now afford. Beginning in 2014, for example, a couple with an income of twice the poverty level (currently $29,000) will be able to buy insurance for an annual premium no higher than 6.3% of their income ($1,827).” Since $695 is still clearly less than $1827, people that are healthy, yet impoverished, will still likely choose to pay the fine.
- The new sets of regulations and taxes are very, very complicated. The array of mandated benefits, taxes, fines, risk-pooled exchanges, etc. create an almost insurmountable maze of policy that I doubt most common folks will be able to understand. That’s a shame, because this bill will drastically change the lives of pretty much everyone. The uncertainty in business circles about how the new law will impact them is warranted.
- You have to submit proof of insurance with your income tax return, which is kind of a bummer. Hopefully, they’ll be quick on making ways for you to “e-file” the proof of insurance. Though, they will have four more years to get that ready (mandate starts 2014).
- The didn’t fix the whole pre-tax/post-tax problem that makes employer provided health insurance much cheaper than individually purchased health insurance. In other words, your health insurance will still be chained to your employer, and you won’t be able to reasonably take it with you.
I’ll probably read the rest of the document later on to get into some of the details. According to their website, “The National Center for Policy Analysis (NCPA) develops and promotes private alternatives to government regulation and control.” I shouldn’t be too surprised then that they come down with a fairly negative take on the reform then given their libertarian bias. However, it’s hard to argue with a lot of that document. It makes an effort to be fact based, which I appreciate.
